The only reason the original position is borderline on the T/P decision is because of the duplication of sixes to get out/attack in the inner board. Otherwise even with three men behind your decent four prime and hardly any ammo up front it's a clear pass.
                       |
| ||||
| XGID=----cCDCCa-----a---bbAbbbA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.35% (G:33.02% B:0.32%) | 66.56% (G:36.08% B:0.40%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.65% (G:6.38% B:0.28%) | 33.44% (G:6.77% B:0.29%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.594 | +1.251 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.726 (-0.273) | ±0.002 (+0.725..+0.728) |
| Double/Take: | +0.999 | ±0.005 (+0.994..+1.004) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.001) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 64.1% | |
| Duration: 4 minutes 57 seconds | ||
Variant
|
| ||||
| XGID=----cCDCCa-------a-bbAbbbA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68.00% (G:34.22% B:0.33%) | 68.42% (G:37.99% B:0.40%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 32.00% (G:6.15% B:0.29%) | 31.58% (G:6.84% B:0.32%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.641 | +1.361 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.740 (-0.260) | ±0.006 (+0.735..+0.746) |
| Double/Take: | +1.134 (+0.134) | ±0.016 (+1.119..+1.150) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 24.2 seconds | ||