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Position of the Day 03-01-25 - The Classics, hit or 5pt? - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 13 March 2025, at 4:40 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-01-25 - The Classics, hit or 5pt? (Stick)

Hitting doesn't leave that many shots and makes it a lot tougher for the opponent to escape two back men opposed to one. It's basically the opp's only timing checker. ('timing checker', I like this term. Dibs!) Everything else is wrapped up in points he doesn't want to give up or needs him to roll specific numbers in order to play cleanly.

Another detail I saw as part of the issue OtB is the resulting position after making the 5pt. Using our last spare from the 6pt leaves us with a slightly less than dynamically ideal position. Compare the original position to the variant below it and see that it does make some difference. In the variant I'd have made the 5pt for sure.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 148 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 148 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aB--CbD---aD-b-bbcBb----:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.	Rollout1	13/12* 12/9	eq: +0.128
	Player: Opponent: 52.16% (G:14.04% B:0.48%) 47.84% (G:8.56% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.112...+0.143) - [100.0%] Duration: 53.1 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/5 6/5	eq: +0.081 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 51.53% (G:10.39% B:0.30%) 48.47% (G:6.64% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.069...+0.094) - [0.0%] Duration: 46.6 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

---

Variant

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 148 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 146 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aB--DbC---aD-b-bbcBb----:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.	Rollout1	13/12* 12/9	eq: +0.160
	Player: Opponent: 52.74% (G:15.26% B:0.51%) 47.26% (G:8.64% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.150...+0.169) - [100.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 29 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/5 6/5	eq: +0.137 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 52.73% (G:11.96% B:0.32%) 47.27% (G:6.74% B:0.23%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.130...+0.144) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 02 seconds
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 03-01-25 - The Classics, hit or 5pt?
  Stick -- Monday, 10 March 2025, at 12:07 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-01-25 - The Classics, hit or 5pt?
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 10 March 2025, at 1:17 p.m.
  • Fewer Shots After Making the 5pt
    Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 11 March 2025, at 7:29 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-01-25 - The Classics, hit or 5pt? - Rollout
    Stick -- Thursday, 13 March 2025, at 4:40 a.m.