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Position of the Day 03-03-25 - Safe or Bold? - Rollout
Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 15 March 2025, at 9:41 a.m.
In Response To: Position of the Day 03-03-25 - Safe or Bold? (Stick)
It is clearly correct in the original position to hit as both John & Bob did. They're good enough we can assume part of the reason was the opponent's inner board blot but nobody mentioned it. If that blot were picked up to its most logical spot the plays are TCTC. See variant below. Note, obviously this also puts the on roll player up 3 more pips.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 120 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 116
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---aBCC-B--CbB---cbd-ab---:1:-1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 11/10 5/3* | eq: +0.354 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.92% (G:16.71% B:0.45%)
31.08% (G:8.00% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.346...+0.361) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26.7 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/3* | eq: +0.302 (-0.051) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.26% (G:15.16% B:0.35%)
32.74% (G:7.95% B:0.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.294...+0.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25.2 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 11/8 | eq: +0.301 (-0.052) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.13% (G:7.44% B:0.18%)
31.87% (G:2.85% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.295...+0.307) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17.2 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 123 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 116
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---aBCC-B--CbB---ccd--b---:1:-1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 11/10 5/3* | eq: +0.394 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 69.83% (G:18.00% B:0.37%)
30.17% (G:7.12% B:0.31%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.391...+0.398) - [60.9%]
Duration: 1 minute 46 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/8 | eq: +0.394 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 70.78% (G:10.86% B:0.25%)
29.22% (G:3.19% B:0.12%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.391...+0.397) - [39.1%]
Duration: 1 minute 14 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
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