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Position of the Day 03-04-25 - The Classics, hit or 5pt? - Rollout
Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 18 March 2025, at 9:37 p.m.
In Response To: Position of the Day 03-04-25 - The Classics, hit or 5pt? (Stick)
It is correct to hit in the original basically because if we don't hit now it's entirely possible we may never get another chance. If our position was more standard with our rear guard all the way back on the 24pt then it's a toss up. See variant below.
          
 
         
 | | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 142 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=---abCC-B---cF-A-b-fa-----:1:-1:-1:12:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 12 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/10* | eq: -0.179 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.94% (G:9.20% B:0.29%)
62.06% (G:16.37% B:0.78%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.188...-0.170) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 00 second |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/5 6/4 | eq: -0.221 (-0.042) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.27% (G:5.84% B:0.15%)
65.73% (G:7.69% B:0.29%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.228...-0.213) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49.0 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 142 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 162
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=-a--bCC-B---cF-A-b-fa-----:1:-1:-1:12:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 12 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/10* | eq: -0.182 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.64% (G:9.69% B:0.29%)
62.36% (G:16.44% B:0.84%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.187...-0.176) - [78.1%]
Duration: 3 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/5 6/4 | eq: -0.184 (-0.003) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.78% (G:8.15% B:0.20%)
64.22% (G:10.06% B:0.43%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.188...-0.180) - [21.9%]
Duration: 2 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
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