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Position of the Day 03-05-25 - Non Standard backgame cube - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 20 March 2025, at 11:21 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-05-25 - Non Standard backgame cube (Stick)

So the thing is ...

  1. We're a favorite
  2. Almost all of our wins are gammons
  3. We almost never lose a gammon

When we have those three things in place and any sort of volatility whatsoever it's really hard for it not to be a cube. Here it's a massive one.

If we take the time to look at our dice rolls we get one anti joker [55], five bad rolls [66 65 51] that leave the checker in the outfield exposed to a triple shot +, and then five more rolls that are meh [64 42 22]. Those last five all get us off the gammon but leave a fair amount of shots of course. That leaves 25 rolls that are spectacular and lose the market.

See the variants below where even if we give the opponent a third anchor in our inner board it's still probably a cube. And then we make the opp's position a decent amount stronger so there isn't so much life after death for us it still doesn't matter much. Massive cube.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 194
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 55
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BGbcaE--Aa------bbbb-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.26% (G:49.29% B:1.47%) 58.20% (G:49.37% B:2.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.74% (G:3.04% B:0.12%) 41.80% (G:2.95% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.621 +1.295
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.594 (-0.304)±0.010 (+0.584..+0.605)
Double/Take:+0.898±0.027 (+0.871..+0.925)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.102)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 11 seconds

Variant #1
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 199
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 55
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BGbcbE--A-------bbbb-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 49.11% (G:40.91% B:1.00%) 50.85% (G:41.80% B:1.72%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 50.89% (G:6.61% B:0.24%) 49.15% (G:6.50% B:0.23%)
Cubeless Equities +0.333 +0.770
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.284 (-0.013)±0.014 (+0.270..+0.298)
Double/Take:+0.296±0.028 (+0.269..+0.324)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.704)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:78.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 01 second

Variant #2
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 178
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 55
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BGbcaE--Aa--------bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.22% (G:47.31% B:1.00%) 57.58% (G:48.10% B:1.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.78% (G:3.52% B:0.13%) 42.42% (G:3.51% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities +0.571 +1.219
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.594 (-0.228)±0.010 (+0.584..+0.603)
Double/Take:+0.822±0.028 (+0.794..+0.850)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.178)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds

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