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Position of the Day 03-09-25 - Can we take this? - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 24 March 2025, at 9:24 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-09-25 - Can we take this? (Stick)

This was me playing against XG per usual and in the moment I was surprised when XG told me I should snatch up this cube. I passed hardly giving it any thought OtB. Rollout confirms it is a pass but XGR or better analysis all thought this was a take, albeit a small one.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 54
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 106
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-FDB-a------A-ba--bcbbAb--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 79.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 80.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 20.65% (G:3.46% B:0.01%) 19.38% (G:3.96% B:0.02%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.552 +1.145
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.793 (-0.207)±0.002 (+0.791..+0.796)
Redouble/Take:+1.036 (+0.036)±0.005 (+1.032..+1.041)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 48.7 seconds

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