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Position of the Day 03-11-25 - Take the money and run?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 24 March 2025, at 4:38 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-11-25 - Take the money and run? (Stick)

The big play of 24/18* 8/2 7/1(2) wins more net g's but loses more single games. I'd guess You win ~12% g's after the safe 24/18* - 12 8(2) which is clearly less than after the big play. How many extra net g's with the big play? You'll pick up White's extra blot about 40% of the time after a fan or 31,32 so that's about a 12/36 chance. That should be about 10 g's. However White does hit with 35 or 34 and you'll lose about 2.5 gammons on those sequences. The net g's are about 7.5.

The big play then gets you about an extra 3.5 g's. That's about 10% extra net g's. How many extra single game losses after the big play? You'll lose some extra games but I think they'll be less than 5%. You'll still have a pretty easy position to bring home with not many shot leaving sequences on your next shake. I vote for the big play.

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 03-11-25 - Take the money and run?
  Stick -- Monday, 24 March 2025, at 9:21 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-11-25 - Take the money and run?
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 24 March 2025, at 4:38 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-11-25 - Take the money and run? - Rollout
    Stick -- Thursday, 27 March 2025, at 11:29 a.m.