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Position of the Day 03-12-25 - Rollout
Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 28 March 2025, at 11:03 p.m.
In Response To: Position of the Day 03-12-25 (Stick)
Any time the opponent has the best possible five point board, I have a guy on the bar, and it's a take I take note. It's very hard for such positions to be takes. Now, I know most if not all of you would realize if we moved the opp's checker from our ace up to our three point (shown in variant below) it would make it a pass. Would you have realized that it went from a near double blunder not to take it to a 5x whopper?!
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 135 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 113
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=-aB-BBBBa---bB----Bcbbbb-A:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 62.98% (G:38.92% B:0.65%) | 63.20% (G:38.82% B:0.62%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 37.02% (G:7.69% B:0.33%) | 36.80% (G:7.70% B:0.33%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.575 | +1.156 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.780 (-0.070) | ±0.014 (+0.766..+0.794) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.850 | ±0.019 (+0.831..+0.869) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.150) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 42.4 seconds |
Variant
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 135 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 111
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=--BaBBBBa---bB----Bcbbbb-A:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 73.00% (G:43.67% B:0.66%) | 72.73% (G:43.18% B:0.63%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 27.00% (G:5.27% B:0.16%) | 27.27% (G:5.50% B:0.16%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.849 | +1.672 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.998 (-0.002) | |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.478 (+0.478) | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass |
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