About as borderline as it gets. As you can see in the variant below not having the spare on the 6pt as the doubler as it sometimes happens makes a huge difference.
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| XGID=----aDCCBBa-a---a--c-bbbbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 71.07% (G:20.36% B:0.06%) | 71.77% (G:21.01% B:0.05%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 28.93% (G:3.29% B:0.14%) | 28.23% (G:3.56% B:0.16%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.591 | +1.218 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.824 (-0.176) | ±0.004 (+0.820..+0.828) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.004 (+0.004) | ±0.007 (+0.997..+1.010) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 86.1% | |
| Duration: 1 minute 52 seconds | ||
Variant
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| XGID=----aDCCBBa-a---a--b-cbbbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 67.00% (G:16.08% B:0.05%) | 67.54% (G:16.29% B:0.05%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.00% (G:3.71% B:0.12%) | 32.46% (G:3.68% B:0.14%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.463 | +0.952 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.653 (-0.051) | ±0.011 (+0.642..+0.664) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.704 | ±0.014 (+0.690..+0.718) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.296) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 30.2 seconds | ||