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BGonline.org Forums
Counterintuitive bearoff results
Posted By: Max Stockslager In Response To: Counterintuitive bearoff results (Bob Koca)
Date: Saturday, 19 April 2025, at 6:30 p.m.
Could it have to do with the variance type? As you probably know, the trailer can take about 1-1.5 effective pips deeper in a pips-vs-pips position (high variance) than a rolls-vs-rolls position (low variance) with the same EPCs since in the high-variance position the trailer is more likely to get a lucky turnaround. Although I haven't done any actual calculations, eyeballing the XG output (see below) it seems plausible that maybe 110002 is lower variance than the other positions since it's very common for both sides to take 3 rolls to bear off, while in the other positions different bearoff lengths are more likely (see numbers below) which intuitively seems consistent with higher variance. I couldn't have come up with this over the board (Art Benjamin wrote some articles about classifying positions as pippish vs. rollish, but I don't know the rules well enough to use them here), but maybe an explanation is that 110002 is lower variance which is worse for the trailer despite the larger EPCs. I would only expect the EPCs increasing from 18.8 (for 022) to 22.6 (for 110002) to increase the point of last take by something like (22.6-18.8)/7 ~ 0.5 pips (based on the n-3 rule, and I even think that is an overestimate for this short of a race), so it seems plausible that if 110002 had lower variance it could be bad enough for the trailer to outweigh the increasing-race-length effect.
022 (EPC 18.8): off in 1 roll (11.11%); 2 rolls (47.45%); 3 rolls (41.42%); 4 rolls (0.02%)
0022 (EPC 21.3): off in 1 roll (8.33%); 2 rolls (25.54%); 3 rolls (62.51%); 4 rolls (3.60%)
110002 (EPC 22.6): off in 1 roll (2.78%); 2 rolls (23.07%); 3 rolls (68.49%); 4 rolls (5.63%)
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