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Counterintuitive bearoff results

Posted By: Art Benjamin
Date: Sunday, 20 April 2025, at 5:21 a.m.

In Response To: Counterintuitive bearoff results (Bob Koca)

I think what's going on has to do with the variance of the number of rolls for both sides. With 4 checkers on the 2 or 3 points, the variance is higher than you might expect. But when the checkers are more spread out and include checkers on the ace and deuce points, then the variance of the position goes down, which hurts the trailer. Note that if we bring 1 or more of the deep checkers to the 4, 5, or 6 points, then the positions become high variance again and the trailer can take. For instance position 001111 (pip count = 18) is a very comfortable take.

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