[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Counterintuitive bearoff results - my thoughts

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Monday, 21 April 2025, at 11:15 a.m.

In Response To: Counterintuitive bearoff results (Max Stockslager)

As illustrated in the off in n rolls numbers, as the EPC gets longer in this range there is a shift away from off in 1 roll, and away from off in 2 rolls to off in 3, and a shift to off in 4 rolls.

The first shift hurts the trailer. Even though the leader gets the first crack at winning with doubles, it is the trailer who is more likely to need them.

The second shift hurts the trailer also. If there were only off in 2, with probability p, and off in 3, with probability 1-p, as possible results than the trailer's win chance would be p(1-p) that is maximimized when p = 1/2 and the 022 position was those probabilities close to each other. As the race gets longer this aspect starts to hurt the trailer more and more.

The final shift helps the trailer significantly, but in the range of pipcounts considered is not large enough to overcome the other shifts.

By the time the race is 21 pips with we 000112 finally have a position worse for the leader than the 10 pip 022.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.