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Americans at 4.0 or below (revisited)

Posted By: Ian Terry
Date: Tuesday, 22 April 2025, at 12:25 a.m.

In Response To: Americans at 4.0 or below (revisited) (Jason Lee)

JLee: I think you meant "underestimate PR" -- as in, overestimating skill.

Yes, that is what I meant. Sorry for the confusion.

JLee: This misconception is a thing? I've never heard this. Replace 4 with 7 and it's still not true.

Believe it or not, yes. Maybe less so now than five years ago, but on the eligibility committee, we still hear players that are getting moved up cite this fabled average from time to time.

JLee: Care to guess the average PR of the 124 players I found? And since this started with a question about PR < 4, how many of the 124 had PR < 4?

(I did the same thing for Chicago 2024, and the results were similar.)

I can't speak for NYMO, but I did the same thing for Chicago 2024 last year and got ~7.3 PR for the average with 13 players coming in under 4.0 (of the 79 that were on the list when I tabulated things).

I did the same for the LA Open 2024 and found that it was sligthly worse (~7.4). A good rule of thumb is that the true average Open PR in ABT events is around 7.25, with a little bit of variation from one tournament to another.

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