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Real Four-Score position! 41S-61P-51Z-44

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 8 May 2025, at 2:04 a.m.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 156
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-a--EBB---cD--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
Money

1.Rollout124/16* 13/9(2)eq: +0.683
Player:
Opponent:
66.05% (G:18.69% B:1.04%)
33.95% (G:7.80% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.674...+0.692) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout124/16* 7/3*(2) eq: +0.641 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
63.33% (G:24.69% B:1.69%)
36.67% (G:8.68% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.633...+0.649) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 32 seconds
3.Rollout124/16*(2) eq: +0.627 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
66.26% (G:13.82% B:0.70%)
33.74% (G:7.17% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.619...+0.635) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 45 seconds
4.Rollout124/20(2) 13/9(2)eq: +0.581 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
64.22% (G:15.83% B:0.54%)
35.78% (G:6.33% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.572...+0.589) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 38 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10753169
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

This is the earliest-game (fourth roll) R4 (real four-score position) that has ever been discovered. The best plays at all four main scores prevail by a clear margin. None of the second-best plays are "tied" (by the B/W error scale). For DMP, the relevant threshold is .0045.

Stick recently posted Money and DMP rollouts. Here I am posting my own rollouts, to 5k, and at each of the four main scores. Money is above; the other three scores are below. First, here is a summary:

---------------------------------------------------------
Money ....B (24/16* 13/9(2)) is best.
DMP ..... R (24/16*(2)) is best.
GS ...... b (24/20(2) 13/9(2)) is best.
GG ...... C (24/16* 7/3*(2)) is best.

---------------------------------------------------------

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 156
1 point match
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-a--EBB---cD--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:1:10
DMP

1.Rollout124/16*(2) eq: +0.305
Player:
Opponent:
65.27% (G:21.37% B:2.63%)
34.73% (G:7.40% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.304...+0.306) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 57 minutes
2.Rollout124/16* 13/9(2)eq: +0.298 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
64.89% (G:25.99% B:4.08%)
35.11% (G:8.50% B:0.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.296...+0.299) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 28 minutes
3.Rollout224/20(2) 13/9(2)eq: +0.282 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
64.11% (G:18.17% B:1.87%)
35.89% (G:7.60% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.280...+0.285) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 29 seconds
4.Rollout224/16* 7/3*(2) eq: +0.243 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
62.13% (G:30.94% B:6.85%)
37.87% (G:8.64% B:1.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.240...+0.246) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 17 seconds
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66697302
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66697302
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 156
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 160
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-a--EBB---cD--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:44:1:0:1:2:10
Gammon Save

1.Rollout124/20(2) 13/9(2)eq: +0.160
Player:
Opponent:
63.51% (G:18.11% B:1.63%)
36.49% (G:5.52% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.158...+0.162) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
2.Rollout124/16*(2) eq: +0.147 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
65.52% (G:22.81% B:2.93%)
34.48% (G:8.17% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.144...+0.150) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
3.Rollout224/16* 13/9(2)eq: +0.125 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
64.72% (G:26.57% B:4.08%)
35.28% (G:8.46% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.121...+0.129) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
4.Rollout224/16* 7/3*(2) eq: +0.052 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:
62.21% (G:31.33% B:7.06%)
37.79% (G:9.59% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.048...+0.057) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10753169
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10753169
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 156
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-a--EBB---cD--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:44:0:1:1:2:10
Gammon Go

1.Rollout124/16* 7/3*(2) eq: +0.746
Player:
Opponent:
64.49% (G:22.83% B:3.89%)
35.51% (G:8.20% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.742...+0.750) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
2.Rollout18/4(2) 7/3*(2) eq: +0.716 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
61.25% (G:24.52% B:3.04%)
38.75% (G:10.43% B:1.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.712...+0.720) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
3.Rollout124/16* 13/9(2)eq: +0.669 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
67.42% (G:16.04% B:2.54%)
32.58% (G:7.12% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.665...+0.673) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
4.Rollout224/20(2) 13/9(2)eq: +0.604 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:
64.82% (G:15.38% B:1.06%)
35.18% (G:7.57% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.601...+0.607) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 39 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66697302
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66697302
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

 

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