The basic problem here is what to do about the deuce point. Make it, slot it, or leave it alone to do something more constructive.
I made the deuce thinking it wins more gammons and fills in the gap making the bear in/off less risky. Whether it's the "pure play" is debatable.
XG prefers the slot, presumably due to timing - white only has ~60 pips of timing but will most likely obtain more while getting two off the roof. A forced hit really plays havoc with her timing and doesn't disadvantage blue due to the anchor and made ace point.
Making the 8 is obvious if you're not making the deuce; making the 8 without slotting is a middling error.
An XGR++ trial for money doesn't change much. Neither does changing the score to GG, although making the deuce is a smaller error at GG.
All this assumes that XG is proficient in positions like this.
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| XGID=bb-BbCCBA---bA---A-cB-b-b-:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:5:9 | |||||
| Blue to play 54 | |||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 6/2 | eq: +0.890 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 20/16 13/8 | eq: +0.846 (-0.043) | |||
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| 3. | Rollout1 | 17/8 | eq: +0.845 (-0.045) | |||
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| 4. | Rollout1 | 7/2 6/2 | eq: +0.822 (-0.068) | |||
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| 5. | Rollout1 | 20/15 17/13 | eq: +0.820 (-0.070) | |||
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| 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2