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Experiment to show doubling cube magnifies luck

Posted By: MK
Date: Thursday, 29 May 2025, at 11:51 p.m.

In Response To: Experiment to show doubling cube magnifies luck (MK)

Recently I ran 4 more pairs of cubeless and cubeful test sessions
using GnuBG (which is a much superior research tool compared
to XG that is useles for doing experiments). Here are the results:

1A = 3-ply checker vs 1-ply checker skill, cubeless.
In 5,000 games weaker player won 48.7% of 6,451 total points.

1B = Added 2-ply cube skill to both players.
In 5,000 games weaker player won 50.1% of 11,600 total points.

2A = 3-ply vs 1-ply checker skill, cubeless, no game recording.
In 10,000 games weaker player won 49.0% of 12,978 total points.

2B = Added 2-ply cube skill to both players.
In 10,000 games weaker player won 49.5% of 23,575 total points.

3A = 3-ply vs 0-ply checker skill, cubeless, no game recording.
In 10,000 games weaker player won 19.1% of 14,871 total points.

3B = Added 2-ply cube skill to both players.
In 10,000 games weaker player won 22.5% of 27,267 total points.

At this point I realized that in the cubeful sessions, I was
turning on the "cubeful checker evaluation" option for both
players, which goes against the idea of isolating checker and
cube skills since that alters the nature of checker skill. So,
I ran yet one more session with probably the most appropriate
settings and thus the most telling results. (Using the lowest
setting for the weaker player and rolling the same sequence of
dice from a file for both cubeless and cubefull sessions).

4A = 3-ply vs 0-ply checker skill with 0.060 noise, cubeless.
In 10,000 games weaker player won 14.6% of 17,045 total points.

4B = Added 2-ply cube skill to both players.
In 10,000 games weaker player won 18.2% of 29,870 total points.

With a bigger checker skill difference between the players,
luck magnifying affect of the cube becomes undeniably visible!

Sorry for the trauma that I may be causing you all. ;) But the
sooner you surrender to reality, the sooner you will overcome denial.

MK

Messages In This Thread

• Experiment to show doubling cube magnifies luck
  MK -- Friday, 23 May 2025, at 10:20 p.m.
  • Experiment to show doubling cube magnifies luck
    MK -- Thursday, 29 May 2025, at 11:51 p.m.