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Position of the Day 04-10-25 - Three two what to do? - Rollout
Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 30 May 2025, at 9:20 a.m.
In Response To: Position of the Day 04-10-25 - Three two what to do? (Stick)
An easy play to see OtB but a very tough one to make when the other play(s) seem very reasonable. XG dinged me for the quiet and calm 11, 7 and I thought maybe a rollout would prove me right. It didn't. Not to ever be overlooked is the opponent having a blot in his inner board. See the obvious variant below for when that blot is lifted and ...it's still right to slot!?
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 119 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---BDBB-A-bA----bbCbbba-:1:-1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/10 6/4 | eq: +0.439 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.00% (G:20.20% B:1.05%)
29.00% (G:10.18% B:0.14%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.435...+0.444) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 51 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/11 10/7 | eq: +0.419 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 69.33% (G:20.28% B:1.03%)
30.67% (G:7.51% B:0.14%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.415...+0.424) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/8 | eq: +0.414 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 69.32% (G:20.63% B:1.05%)
30.68% (G:8.28% B:0.14%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.410...+0.418) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 124 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---BDBB-A-bA----bcCbbb--:1:-1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/10 6/4 | eq: +0.338 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.97% (G:17.95% B:0.81%)
32.03% (G:10.46% B:0.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.333...+0.343) - [99.2%]
Duration: 2 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/11 10/7 | eq: +0.330 (-0.008) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.56% (G:18.08% B:0.74%)
33.44% (G:7.34% B:0.15%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.326...+0.334) - [0.8%]
Duration: 1 minute 46 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 13/8 | eq: +0.309 (-0.029) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.01% (G:18.31% B:0.79%)
33.99% (G:8.03% B:0.16%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.300...+0.318) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25.7 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
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