So first things first, the original position and Variant #1 where the defender's back spare is advanced to a presumed better spot makes virtually no difference. (See below)
Looking back I wish I had posted Variant #3 (or #2) as the Potd problem. Everyone in the comments knew to double with three points to clear and all took without much thought to where the opponent's checkers were. Maybe they didn't think it was worth mentioning since it wasn't an issue in the actual problem posted but it is definitely worth noting that re-aliving those checkers to spares instead of dead checkers makes quite the difference. (See below)
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 164 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 72
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=---BBBBA--A-------bedBbCb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 61.14% (G:39.41% B:1.54%) | 61.28% (G:39.75% B:1.47%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 38.86% (G:3.59% B:0.12%) | 38.72% (G:3.56% B:0.13%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.595 | +1.202 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.703 (-0.156) | ±0.014 (+0.689..+0.716) |
| Double/Take: | +0.859 | ±0.019 (+0.840..+0.877) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.141) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 39.4 seconds |
Variant #1
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 162 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 72
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=---BBBBA--A-------bedCbBb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 61.08% (G:38.43% B:1.44%) | 61.20% (G:38.72% B:1.44%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 38.92% (G:3.37% B:0.10%) | 38.80% (G:3.40% B:0.11%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.586 | +1.181 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.701 (-0.148) | ±0.011 (+0.690..+0.712) |
| Double/Take: | +0.849 | ±0.017 (+0.832..+0.865) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.151) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 39.5 seconds |
Variant #2
 
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 162 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 78
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=---BBBBA--A-------beeCcB--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64.96% (G:38.17% B:1.96%) | 65.13% (G:38.32% B:1.80%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35.04% (G:2.80% B:0.11%) | 34.87% (G:2.76% B:0.11%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.671 | +1.350 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.782 (-0.218) | ±0.010 (+0.772..+0.792) |
| Double/Take: | +1.039 (+0.039) | ±0.020 (+1.019..+1.058) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 35.6 seconds |
Variant #3
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 164 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 78
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=---BBBBA--A-------beeBcC--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64.86% (G:39.15% B:2.05%) | 65.14% (G:39.86% B:2.14%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35.14% (G:2.99% B:0.10%) | 34.86% (G:2.92% B:0.10%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.678 | +1.386 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.796 (-0.204) | ±0.010 (+0.786..+0.806) |
| Double/Take: | +1.078 (+0.078) | ±0.019 (+1.059..+1.097) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 35.6 seconds |