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65R-32S-55A-62H-62U-31 (group)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 5 June 2025, at 5:59 a.m.

In Response To: (Double) Buridan's donkey (pierrez)





White is Joueur 2

score: 0
pip: 145
5 point match
pip: 155
score: 0

Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=--a---EaC--AfD---A-c-Ab-b-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:5:10
65R-32S-55A-62H-62U-31

1.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: -0,017
Player:
Opponent:		51,63% (G:15,49% B:0,90%)
48,37% (G:19,54% B:0,78%)		Conf.: ± 0,014 (-0,031...-0,003) - [99,5%]
Duration: 55 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 11/10eq: -0,043 (-0,026)
Player:
Opponent:		50,68% (G:13,41% B:0,76%)
49,32% (G:18,29% B:0,42%)		Conf.: ± 0,014 (-0,057...-0,030) - [0,4%]
Duration: 56 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout111/7* eq: -0,054 (-0,037)
Player:
Opponent:		50,48% (G:13,19% B:0,72%)
49,52% (G:18,37% B:0,70%)		Conf.: ± 0,016 (-0,069...-0,038) - [0,0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 18 seconds
4.Rollout121/17eq: -0,055 (-0,038)
Player:
Opponent:		49,17% (G:10,51% B:0,40%)
50,83% (G:13,36% B:0,34%)		Conf.: ± 0,014 (-0,069...-0,041) - [0,0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 58 seconds
5.3-ply17/14 8/7* eq: -0,164 (-0,147)
Player:
Opponent:		48,42% (G:11,87% B:0,43%)
51,58% (G:19,71% B:0,79%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Making the 5pt is the best play for all but one of the related positions in the group below. The variables are:

(a) The second roll of 32S or 43Z (Blue's leading blot is on his 11pt or 9pt);

(b) The fourth roll play of 42H or 62H (Blue's trailing blot is on his 23pt or 21pt); and

(c) the fifth roll play of 61U or 62U (White's trailing blot is on her 24pt or 23pt).

The position posted by pierrez (and listed in this subject header) is marked with an asterisk.

-------------------------------------------------
65R-32S-55A-42H-61U-31... 65R-43Z-55A-42H-61U-31
65R-32S-55A-62H-61U-31(x).65R-43Z-55A-62H-61U-31

65R-32S-55A-42H-62U-31... 65R-43Z-55A-42H-62U-31
65R-32S-55A-62H-62U-31*.. 65R-43Z-55A-62H-62U-31
-------------------------------------------------

For the position marked "x," anchoring (21/17) is better than making the 5pt. (The difference between this one and pierrez's position is that White's 23pt blot is on her 24pt.)


The rollout results under the diagram above were originally posted by pierrez. There are various ways that that position might have been reached in practical play. If it was reached by 65R-21S..., then Blue's second roll play (splitting with 24/23 13/11) is an error of about .030. If it was reached by 65R-62S... than White's third-roll play of 55A (8/3(2) 6/1*(2)), though frequently made, is a blunder.

Per my subject header, I am assuming the best practical case -- that the move sequence started 65R-32S-55, but even then White's third-roll play was an error. For reference, I found rollouts (3-ply checker, XGR cube, 5184 trials for three plays) for the first two of the positions below; the third is an XGR++ evaluation.

------------------------------------
65R-21S-55 [P N24 A44] "<=5
65R-32S-55 [N P5 A23] "<=5
65R-62S-55 [N A80 P190]e
------------------------------------

...where N = 13/8(2) 6/1*(2), P = 13/3(2), and A = 8/3(2) 6/1*(2). Error sizes are stated in miilipoints. For example, for 65R-32S-55, N is best, P is an error of .005, and A is an error of .023.

It doesn't prove anything, but it is interesting that White finds herself in a relatively inferior position because she misplayed the third roll position.

Reviewing the latter part of this post might be helpful for students of the second and third roll of the game.

Nack

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