[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Position of the Day 04-25-25 - Save the bg?

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Monday, 9 June 2025, at 7:26 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 04-25-25 - Save the bg? (Stick)

8 shot numbers and then 1/3 chance to hit gives 8/3 games that get the hit on the next sequence. Will win about 20% of those cubeless so about 25% cubeful. So about 2/3 games swing a probable gammon loss to a win. 3 point swing times 2/3 = 2 and other 2 games swing a probable gammon loss to a single loss = 2. So a swing of +4 overall.

Staying gives an immediate swing of gammon loss to a backgammon loss 4 times. So -4.

It only being a probable instead of sure gammon loss swings it towards getting off the backgammon. Also swinging towards running is that if no shot is left, might roll a 11, 12, 31 next shake and face more backgammon risk (but with some more shot chances).

Howeve, staying has some other benefits. If do get hit and enter with 13, 14, 15, 16 are very likely to get another shot and are glad had stayed. Also, it uses the numbers efficiently for just running off the gammon giving an immediate 66 to run off it and giving more chance to be off the gammon in two shakes.

My guess is close choice for 23/18.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.