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Position of the Day 04-24-25 - Not your every day cube - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 11 June 2025, at 6:59 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 04-24-25 - Not your every day cube (Stick)

I took OtB and felt pretty good about it. It's closer than I would have thought. All I knew is there's a lot of game left and it isn't as hard as it seems to put my offensive position back together fairly quickly. I also feel like the doubler's side should be tougher for a human to play.

The biggest ick of the position is our checker on our ace point. See variant below.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 165
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-A--ACA-c---cG---c-d---bB-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.52% (G:19.44% B:1.30%) 71.41% (G:20.56% B:1.55%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.48% (G:5.07% B:0.16%) 28.59% (G:5.25% B:0.16%)
Cubeless Equities +0.586 +1.190
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.920 (-0.063)±0.006 (+0.914..+0.926)
Double/Take:+0.983±0.009 (+0.974..+0.992)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.017)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds

Variant
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 169
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=----ADA-c---cG---c-d---bB-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 69.65% (G:18.88% B:1.35%) 69.38% (G:19.65% B:1.46%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.35% (G:5.62% B:0.22%) 30.62% (G:5.71% B:0.25%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.537 +1.078
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.847 (-0.014)±0.015 (+0.832..+0.862)
Double/Take:+0.860±0.019 (+0.841..+0.880)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.140)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:86.1%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds

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