Knowing when not to hit is one of the tougher questions in backgammon. It is often so right to hit it should definitely be our default option. Here we've doubled, we're up significantly in the race, and can try to break contact now launching off the 18pt while hitting. Doesn't seem unreasonable but as John pointed out it actually leaves a third of the rolls as hitting numbers. On top of that it's 5 blots! (though easily cleaned up when missed)
We can't be lazy though and take that stand alone fact and apply it blindly. It's the combination of the shots and the strength of the opponent's board. For example, if we make it so the opponent only has the best two point board as in the variant below it would now be a blunder with extra side sauce not to hit. We have a lot more breathing room to play loose.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 140 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 121
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--bB-BDBA-A--Aba-dBbbb----:1:-1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 8/5 | eq: +0.339 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 69.16% (G:10.16% B:0.38%)
30.84% (G:5.05% B:0.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.332...+0.347) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21.9 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/12 18/15* | eq: +0.288 (-0.052) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.49% (G:17.79% B:0.82%)
33.51% (G:9.98% B:1.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.277...+0.299) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32.7 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 144 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 121
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--bB-BDBA-A--Aba-dBdb-----:1:-1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 18/12 18/15* | eq: +0.508 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.57% (G:21.20% B:1.03%)
27.43% (G:5.88% B:0.52%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 13/7 8/5 | eq: +0.371 (-0.137) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 69.87% (G:12.18% B:0.45%)
30.13% (G:4.50% B:0.20%) | |
|