This is the kind of position that could be deceptive and be misplayed routinely by focussing only on the blots and the worst scenario.
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| XGID=---aB-C-C-ABeB--Ab-b-ab-bA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 63,06% (G:34,77% B:0,95%) | 63,45% (G:36,43% B:0,86%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 36,94% (G:8,21% B:0,40%) | 36,55% (G:8,48% B:0,42%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,532 | +1,106 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0,576 (-0,234) | ±0,011 (+0,564..+0,587) |
| Double/Take: | +0,810 | ±0,019 (+0,791..+0,829) |
| Double/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,190) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 35 minutes 39 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
As sharp eyes have noticed, there is a stack of spares on the Blue 13 point, a duplication of the 4 and only 9 builders in the zone.
But any 4 or any hit followed by a fan or bad reentry would be a market loser. So Double.
On the White side, the front loading position is so perfect that (alongside with the White's weaknesses mentioned above) the cube deserves to be taken, despite the blot on the bar
As soon as you change the position by diversifying (instead of duplicating) or by simply moving a spare from the Blue 13 point onto the 8 point, it becomes a Pass.