I'm posting this not too far in front of when Jason often posts his rollouts so I hope nobody minds. I have too many windows open and want to close some of them is all. Here are a slew of rollouts for the original position plus variants. I think every red blooded American (rightfully) plays 24/18 without much reflection.
Original
         
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 153 | | 9 point match | pip: 173
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----aBDBa---dD--ac-e----BA:0:0:1:62:0:2:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 13/7 | eq: -0.023 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.38% (G:15.35% B:0.62%)
52.62% (G:13.42% B:0.95%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.034...-0.013) - [99.9%]
Duration: 2 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 24/18 | eq: -0.047 (-0.023) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.43% (G:14.11% B:0.55%)
52.57% (G:14.12% B:0.82%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.057...-0.036) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 minutes 24 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant - Score removed
I always like to take the score out of the equation for the most part to know for sure what the base move is.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 153 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 173
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----aBDBa---dD--ac-e----BA:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 13/7 | eq: -0.070 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.43% (G:15.11% B:0.61%)
52.57% (G:13.25% B:0.78%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.078...-0.062) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 54 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 24/18 | eq: -0.088 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.48% (G:13.66% B:0.56%)
52.52% (G:13.56% B:0.71%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.096...-0.081) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant - Opp's blot moved from his 9pt to his 10pt
As we should have all learned from an excellent post by Nack long ago, when the opp's outfield blot is on his 10pt we are more eager to split to the 18pt compared to if his blot is on either the 9pt or the 11pt
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 154 | | 9 point match | pip: 173
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----aBDBa---dD-a-c-e----BA:0:0:1:62:0:2:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 24/18 | eq: -0.038 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.51% (G:13.58% B:0.47%)
52.49% (G:13.83% B:0.86%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.046...-0.030) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 13/7 | eq: -0.057 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.57% (G:14.48% B:0.51%)
53.43% (G:13.68% B:0.94%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.065...-0.049) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant - blot moved to our 3pt
For the next three positions I push the opp's blot back one pip each time. This is one way to maybe glance into how the duplication of our opp's rolls may be playing a part. (amongst other obvious things)
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 154 | | 9 point match | pip: 173
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---a-BDBa---dD--ac-e----BA:0:0:1:62:0:2:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 13/7 | eq: -0.036 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.16% (G:15.43% B:0.55%)
52.84% (G:14.34% B:1.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.044...-0.028) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 24/18 | eq: -0.055 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.21% (G:14.24% B:0.61%)
52.79% (G:14.70% B:0.91%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.062...-0.047) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant - blot moved to our 2pt
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 155 | | 9 point match | pip: 173
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--a--BDBa---dD--ac-e----BA:0:0:1:62:0:2:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 24/18 | eq: -0.043 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.41% (G:13.84% B:0.57%)
52.59% (G:13.96% B:0.77%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.054...-0.033) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 09 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout2 | Bar/23 13/7 | eq: -0.077 (-0.034) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.32% (G:14.62% B:0.51%)
53.68% (G:14.04% B:0.91%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.088...-0.067) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 01 second |
|
| |
1 2763 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 2760 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant - blot moved to our ace point
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 156 | | 9 point match | pip: 173
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---BDBa---dD--ac-e----BA:0:0:1:62:0:2:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 24/18 | eq: +0.085 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.56% (G:15.47% B:0.74%)
49.44% (G:14.48% B:0.83%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.076...+0.094) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 48 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 13/7 | eq: +0.060 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.62% (G:16.19% B:0.59%)
50.38% (G:13.81% B:0.99%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.052...+0.069) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| |
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|