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Position of the Day 05-03-25 Rollouts of original and Bob's modification

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Friday, 20 June 2025, at 10:01 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 05-03-25 (Bob Koca)

UBK: Interesting how increasing white's gammon chances, for example could move back spare on 6 point 10 pips, actually pushes the decision towards cubing. Seems like a paradox.

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Original

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 54 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 118 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBBCBB---------aacdbBd-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	58.15% (G:12.06% B:0.40%)	58.64% (G:10.75% B:0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	41.85% (G:5.80% B:0.08%)	41.36% (G:5.04% B:0.07%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.229	+0.465
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.300	±0.003 (+0.297..+0.302)
Redouble/Take:	+0.295 (-0.005)	±0.004 (+0.291..+0.299)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.700)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ Search interval: Huge
Double Decision confidence:		97.6%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 17 minutes 50 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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Modified position

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 54 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 128 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBBBBB-------A-aacdbBd-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	58.98% (G:11.73% B:0.41%)	59.39% (G:10.62% B:0.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	41.02% (G:9.31% B:0.15%)	40.61% (G:8.41% B:0.14%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.206	+0.424
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.285 (-0.001)	±0.003 (+0.282..+0.289)
Redouble/Take:	+0.286	±0.005 (+0.281..+0.292)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.714)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ Search interval: Huge
Double Decision confidence:		61.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 40 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 05-03-25
  Stick -- Wednesday, 18 June 2025, at 12:58 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 05-03-25
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 18 June 2025, at 1:36 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 05-03-25
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 18 June 2025, at 5:13 p.m.
    • Position of the Day 05-03-25
      John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 18 June 2025, at 5:43 p.m.
      • Position of the Day 05-03-25
        Bob Koca -- Thursday, 19 June 2025, at 7:23 p.m.
        • Position of the Day 05-03-25 Rollouts of original and Bob's modification
          Jason Lee -- Friday, 20 June 2025, at 10:01 p.m.
          • Position of the Day 05-03-25 Rollouts of original and Bob's modification
            Bob Koca -- Friday, 20 June 2025, at 10:20 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 05-03-25 - Rollout
    Stick -- Friday, 20 June 2025, at 6:24 a.m.