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Position of the Day 05-04-25 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 21 June 2025, at 5:56 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 05-04-25 (Stick)

While it's kind of easy to notice we might lose too many gammons in the original position who would have been able to predict the cut off point? See variant below.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 129
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 41
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EEDa---------Acbcbbb-----:2:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.04% (G:23.49% B:0.00%) 73.13% (G:23.62% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.96% (G:1.66% B:0.05%) 26.87% (G:1.54% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities +0.659 +1.366
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.697 (-0.303)±0.004 (+0.693..+0.700)
Redouble/Take:+1.269 (+0.269)±0.005 (+1.264..+1.274)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10.6 seconds

Variant
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 121
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 41
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EEDa---------Abbbbcba----:2:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.81% (G:9.91% B:0.00%) 72.71% (G:9.91% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.19% (G:1.50% B:0.03%) 27.29% (G:1.54% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities +0.520 +1.075
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.584 (-0.411)±0.002 (+0.582..+0.586)
Redouble/Take:+0.995±0.003 (+0.992..+0.998)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.005)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 16.0 seconds

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