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Probability of hitting a checker from a long running start

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Tuesday, 1 July 2025, at 1:14 p.m.

In this thread, we discussed that the probability that the last roll in a bearoff is approximately 2/7 (subject to the right assumptions).

New problem: Consider a very very long board, with one white checker that never moves. A single black checker starts from very far away, and Black gets to roll over and over until one of two things happens:

  • The Black checker hits the stationary White checker.
  • The Black checker passes the White checker without hitting.

Assume that the Black checker WANTS to hit. What is the probability that the Black checker will achieve that hit?

JLee

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