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52 From the Bar

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 7 July 2025, at 3:05 a.m.

In Response To: 52 From the Bar (Bob Koca)

Colin's rollout data shows that the big play is only correct because you own the cube. B/18 loses a net of 2.04% net gammons vs. 22.6% after the loose hit. We also have to consider net bg's (which I didn't mention in my post). After B/18, we lose a net of .03% bg's vs. 2.09% after 13/11*. So hitting loses 20.56% extra net g's and 2.06% extra net bg's. Ignoring cube vig, you'd think we need to increase our wins by 10.28% to make up for the extra g losses and 2.06% for the bg's. That's 12.34% but our extra win totals are just 10.79%. Cube ownership therefore is just enough to make the big play correct in this position.

Messages In This Thread

• 52 From the Bar
  Colin Owen -- Thursday, 3 July 2025, at 4:31 a.m.
  • 52 From the Bar
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 3 July 2025, at 12:50 p.m.
    • 52 From the Bar
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 3 July 2025, at 7:24 p.m.
      • 52 From the Bar
        John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 3 July 2025, at 8:56 p.m.
      • 52 From the Bar
        John O'Hagan -- Monday, 7 July 2025, at 3:05 a.m.
  • 52 From the Bar
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 3 July 2025, at 11:31 p.m.
    • 52 From the Bar
      Colin Owen -- Saturday, 5 July 2025, at 1:24 p.m.
      • 52 From the Bar
        Bob Koca -- Saturday, 5 July 2025, at 4:17 p.m.