A shame more people didn't try their hand at this one. I believe OtB many would have blundered with what is a natural looking play, and seemingly innocent until we take a harder look.
No matter the play from the rollout XG is doubling and taking next roll. The thing is, the opponent has a lot of rolls next turn that make the bar point or even the four point and leave some fly shots or perhaps situations where we need to step up. In all of these scenarios we're way better off having buttoned up instead of the what is often natural, slotting the next point we want to make. Our position needs to be tidied up because the potential action is now.
          
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 113 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 118
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---B-BD-CAAAba-aab-db-b-A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 11/5 10/9 | eq: -0.864 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25.53% (G:3.32% B:0.12%)
74.47% (G:5.33% B:0.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.874...-0.854) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21.8 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 10/4 6/5 | eq: -0.957 (-0.093) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 24.56% (G:3.72% B:0.16%)
75.44% (G:7.30% B:0.39%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.968...-0.945) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23.3 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 11/4 | eq: -0.958 (-0.094) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 24.38% (G:3.87% B:0.17%)
75.62% (G:7.24% B:0.39%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.969...-0.947) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22.2 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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