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Rollout of variant

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 7 August 2025, at 4:41 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 05-21-25 - Can we take? (Bob Koca)

It is borderline whether to cube or not and does not give as much equity to the cuber (about .12 less) as the original position. The hitting chances are the more important thing in the original since don't have big doubles to convert to a race and will have likely wasted with crunching by the time do get to run. Helping the timing at the expense of the race is beneficial.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 111
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 85
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-B-BBBC-A----Aa--bbbd-dB--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.046% (G:4.041% B:0.076%) 73.438% (G:4.011% B:0.069%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.954% (G:2.073% B:0.047%) 26.562% (G:2.136% B:0.049%)
Cubeless Equities +0.4809 +0.9755
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.8428±0.0007 (+0.8421..+0.8435)
Redouble/Take:+0.8426 (-0.0002)±0.0009 (+0.8417..+0.8435)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.1572)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.2%
Rollout details
165888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:65.7%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 48 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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