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Rollout of variant

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 7 August 2025, at 4:52 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout of variant (Bob Koca)

Even just making the race a single pip closer in the original position by moving the straggler back a pip shows a significant improvement (about .03) for the on turn player.

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 103 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 91 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-B-BBCBBa--------bbbd-dB--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	76.551% (G:4.321% B:0.079%)	76.813% (G:4.198% B:0.066%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23.449% (G:1.201% B:0.023%)	23.188% (G:1.295% B:0.026%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.5628	+1.1314
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.9441 (-0.0532)	±0.0061 (+0.9380..+0.9502)
Redouble/Take:	+0.9973	±0.0089 (+0.9884..+1.0061)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.0000 (+0.0027)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		72.7%
Duration: 1 minute 20 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Vs Original:

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 103 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 90 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-B-BBCBB-a-------bbbd-dB--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75.838% (G:4.193% B:0.067%)	76.203% (G:4.114% B:0.066%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.162% (G:1.438% B:0.025%)	23.797% (G:1.520% B:0.030%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.5447	+1.1007
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.9192 (-0.0465)	±0.0077 (+0.9115..+0.9270)
Redouble/Take:	+0.9657	±0.0099 (+0.9558..+0.9756)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.0000 (+0.0343)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 15 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 05-21-25 - Can we take?
  Stick -- Monday, 4 August 2025, at 5:41 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 05-21-25 - Can we take?
    ah_clem -- Monday, 4 August 2025, at 1:18 p.m.
    • Position of the Day 05-21-25 - Can we take?
      pierrez -- Monday, 4 August 2025, at 3:26 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 05-21-25 - Can we take?
    Bob Koca -- Monday, 4 August 2025, at 6:16 p.m.
    • Position of the Day 05-21-25 - Can we take?
      ah_clem -- Monday, 4 August 2025, at 7:35 p.m.
      • Position of the Day 05-21-25 - Can we take?
        pierrez -- Monday, 4 August 2025, at 11:07 p.m.
    • Rollout of variant
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 7 August 2025, at 4:41 p.m.
      • Rollout of variant
        Bob Koca -- Thursday, 7 August 2025, at 4:52 p.m.
      • Rollout of variant
        Stick -- Thursday, 7 August 2025, at 8:57 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 05-21-25 - Can we take? - Rollout - Illuminating Results
    Stick -- Thursday, 7 August 2025, at 8:52 p.m.