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Position of the Day 05-21-25 - Can we take? - Rollout - Illuminating Results

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 7 August 2025, at 8:52 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 05-21-25 - Can we take? (Stick)

So I was a bit surprised to learn that this is a take. Granted, it's pretty efficient and no real sleep should be lost if we pass still, I wanted to figure it out.

I set up the position in XG with me owning the 4 cube as the taking player and played out 10 games. Now 10 games is hardly anything if you're looking at points won or lost. There will be way too much variance to have meaningful results however...if you're able to play those games out and take into account how 'normal' they unfold then you can weight their meaning for yourself. Here are some points about the position that become clear quite quickly.

  • The game for the taker is easy as sin to play out. Your overall PR should round to zero.
  • The opponent leaves a lot of shots bearing in and they do it faster than we might have thought originally.
  • Our board doesn't break/hardly breaks at all by the time these shots come meaning hitting a shot is a (near) automatic winner.
  • Owning the cube here isn't worth much as there will hardly ever be a RD/T/EC situation. Most wins will be hits + clear drops.

Now here are the results of the ten games I played from the perspective of me, the taker.

  1. +4, opponent double blotted on the bear in and I got lucky to hit both. TG for a while but eventually RD/P
  2. +4, RD/P after hitting a bear in shot
  3. +4, RD/P after throwing five large/medium doubles in a row
  4. -4
  5. +4, RD/P after hitting a bear in shot
  6. -8, gammon loss
  7. -4
  8. -4
  9. -4
  10. +4, RD/P after hitting a bear in shot

In summary for these ten game if I had dropped my score would have been -20. By taking I ended up -4 instead. Obviously I was a bit lucky hitting the shots that mattered when I got them.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 103
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 90
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-B-BBCBB-a-------bbbd-dB--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.84% (G:4.19% B:0.07%) 76.20% (G:4.11% B:0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.16% (G:1.44% B:0.03%) 23.80% (G:1.52% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities +0.545 +1.101
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.919 (-0.046)±0.008 (+0.911..+0.927)
Redouble/Take:+0.966±0.010 (+0.956..+0.976)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.034)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 13.9 seconds

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