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DQ 3: The backgame will protect me

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Thursday, 7 August 2025, at 10:38 p.m.

In Response To: DQ 3: The backgame will protect me (leobueno)

Doubling when your opponent is 2 away is always a bit tricky. Your opponent has no cube vig and it neutralizes gammons so your doubling window opens early.

But not too early. There are a fair number of players who double immediately when I'm 2a, and unless it's 2a2a that's usually wrong.

Here, you have a 5-1 backgame structure with only ~50 pips of timing. The 5-1 structure is one of the weakest, and since it loses fewer gammons than other structures I'd be less inclined to ship it to neutralize gammons. That would be enough to hold the cube.

The question to ask whenever you're considering a cube (which should be every turn where you have cube access) is "what are the market losers?" and I'm not seeing any. Maybe the bot can find a cube here, and perhaps it's not that big an error due to the dead cube and the irrelevance of gammon losses once the cube has turned.

The lack of market losers, and the fact that nobody is ever going to pass this should be a signal to hold the cube. When playing against humans, sending the cube gives your opponent a chance to make a mistake that they wouldn't if you hold. In situations like this, it can pay to wait until your opponent has a difficult take decision.

So, ND/T is my play.

Good series. Keep it up.

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