Not even close. I'm not surprised that not hitting is correct but a little surprised by the size of it. I feel like us mere mortals see this position and we see that we've cubed, we see that we have the (much) stronger board, we see that the opponent has a blotted inner board, that if we hit we'll have 11 men in the zone and the made ace point is generally another flag signaling we want to attack and we attack! Can't really blame you if you wanted to hit here.
See the variant below where we've taken away the opp's bar point as that is offensive progress even if it's not inner board points. It's still right to make the 16pt but at least it's not covered in red.
           
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 143 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 133
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-B--aCB-C---eC---bbdAAa---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 21/16 20/16 | eq: +0.365 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.71% (G:21.47% B:0.26%)
33.29% (G:6.70% B:0.29%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.358...+0.372) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29.0 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/4* | eq: +0.256 (-0.109) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.36% (G:29.98% B:0.35%)
39.64% (G:8.75% B:0.52%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.248...+0.265) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33.3 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 145 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 133
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-B--aCB-C---eC---d-dAAa---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 21/16 20/16 | eq: +0.420 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.69% (G:21.48% B:0.21%)
31.31% (G:5.72% B:0.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.413...+0.426) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33.4 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/4* | eq: +0.377 (-0.043) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.79% (G:32.33% B:0.34%)
36.21% (G:7.76% B:0.41%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.366...+0.388) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35.5 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|