I said, "The made ace point makes me less inclined to mix it up with something like hitting loose on the four point. "
Stick said, "...the made ace point is generally another flag signaling we want to attack...."
Maybe I have this backwards, but in the variant below I've moved the two checkers on the ace to the three point. It's still not optimal to "mix it up" but it's a much smaller error.
           
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 143 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 137
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---BaCB-C---eC---bbdAAa---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 21/16 20/16 | eq: +0.392 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.46% (G:18.55% B:0.37%)
31.54% (G:5.19% B:0.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.382...+0.402) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13.8 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 21/16 8/4* | eq: +0.344 (-0.048) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.61% (G:27.79% B:0.60%)
35.39% (G:8.61% B:0.43%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.333...+0.355) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13.7 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 20/15 8/4* | eq: +0.339 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.18% (G:28.07% B:0.70%)
35.82% (G:9.00% B:0.47%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.328...+0.349) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13.0 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/4* | eq: +0.333 (-0.059) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.19% (G:29.15% B:0.66%)
36.81% (G:7.95% B:0.38%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.320...+0.346) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13.2 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10