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Hit, point, unstack, something else? - Rollout

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Friday, 8 August 2025, at 4:40 p.m.

In Response To: Hit, point, unstack, something else? (ah_clem)

When in doubt, make the five point, right? Well, it just didn't seem right to blot on the ten leaving a direct shot, strip the eight, and leave both ugly stacks; XG agrees with that.

Hitting seems to prematurely bury a checker for not much in return.

That leaves bringing two down or making the three point. I opted for the three point since I have a bias towards permanent assets, which can steer me wrong sometimes. The advantages of pointing on the three are: unstack, make a homeboard point, and leave no blots. Two down only accomplishes 2 of those 3.

XGR++ thought making the three was a small error, while the rollout says it's the top move. But not by much. More trials or stronger rollout settings might reverse the order.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 174 5 point match pip: 139 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-b-E-C-B-bE---cacb-----:0:0:1:53:2:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 53

1.	Rollout1	8/3 6/3	eq: +0.400
	Player: Opponent: 61.45% (G:17.75% B:1.71%) 38.55% (G:9.00% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.380...+0.419) - [90.0%] Duration: 18.1 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/10 13/8	eq: +0.382 (-0.018)
	Player: Opponent: 61.21% (G:16.22% B:1.12%) 38.79% (G:8.67% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (+0.362...+0.401) - [10.0%] Duration: 16.8 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/10 6/1*	eq: +0.296 (-0.103)
	Player: Opponent: 59.17% (G:15.27% B:1.24%) 40.83% (G:9.57% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (+0.276...+0.317) - [0.0%] Duration: 19.8 seconds
4.	Rollout1	10/5 8/5	eq: +0.241 (-0.159)
	Player: Opponent: 57.65% (G:18.41% B:1.78%) 42.35% (G:10.58% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.222...+0.260) - [0.0%] Duration: 18.4 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Hit, point, unstack, something else?
  ah_clem -- Monday, 4 August 2025, at 3:40 p.m.
  • Hit, point, unstack, something else?
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 4 August 2025, at 8:34 p.m.
    • Hit, point, unstack, something else?
      Stick -- Tuesday, 5 August 2025, at 5:24 a.m.
  • Hit, point, unstack, something else? - Rollout
    ah_clem -- Friday, 8 August 2025, at 4:40 p.m.
    • Hit, point, unstack, something else? - Rollout's Big Brother
      Stick -- Friday, 8 August 2025, at 6:55 p.m.
      • Hit, point, unstack, something else? - Rollout's Big Brother
        ah_clem -- Friday, 8 August 2025, at 10:10 p.m.