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Position of the Day 05-23-25 - Standard or Wild - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 9 August 2025, at 8:52 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 05-23-25 - Standard or Wild (Stick)

It's easy to sleep on a play like this as 13/5 is pretty normal looking. As Raj Jansari and Mad-Eye Moody would say, constant vigilance!

Also, interestingly enough, after the right play which is again correct by a large margin, it's a small double. After the wrong play it is a small no double. See rollouts below.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 136
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 139
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BbBC-B---aEab-abbb-b-A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 62

1.Rollout113/11 13/7eq: -0.591
Player:
Opponent:		34.97% (G:8.06% B:0.49%)
65.03% (G:17.70% B:0.78%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.604...-0.578) - [100.0%]
Duration: 32.4 seconds
2.Rollout113/5eq: -0.660 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:		33.08% (G:6.66% B:0.30%)
66.92% (G:16.91% B:0.41%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.675...-0.645) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33.1 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

After the correct play
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 131
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---BbBCAB--AaCab-abbb-b-A-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.30% (G:17.29% B:0.76%) 65.70% (G:19.11% B:0.79%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.70% (G:8.16% B:0.48%) 34.30% (G:7.09% B:0.33%)
Cubeless Equities +0.400 +0.878
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.596 (-0.027)±0.012 (+0.583..+0.608)
Double/Take:+0.622±0.018 (+0.605..+0.640)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.378)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 51.6 seconds

After the wrong play
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 131
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---BbCC-B---aDab-abbb-b-A-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.09% (G:16.65% B:0.45%) 67.38% (G:17.62% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.91% (G:6.54% B:0.26%) 32.62% (G:6.57% B:0.27%)
Cubeless Equities +0.445 +0.920
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.677±0.008 (+0.669..+0.686)
Double/Take:+0.671 (-0.006)±0.009 (+0.662..+0.680)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.323)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.9%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:84.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 46 seconds

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