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DQ 3: The backgame will protect me *RO*

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Saturday, 9 August 2025, at 2:44 p.m.

In Response To: DQ 3: The backgame will protect me (leobueno)

The rollout suggests that the decision is not close: double. Stick mentioned that at 4a 2a one needs to be aggressive with the cube. However, for donkeys it is unintuitive to double as an underdog. Thus, will appreciate additional insights into why it makes sense to double here.





White is Opponent

score: 5
pip: 106
7 point match
pip: 159
score: 3

Blue is Donkey
XGID=--BBABBa--A-ba---a-dBc-cBA:0:0:1:D:3:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 46.87% (G:12.78% B:0.77%) 47.77% (G:13.55% B:1.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 53.13% (G:24.15% B:7.58%) 52.23% (G:28.14% B:9.15%)
Cubeless Equities -0.349 +0.126
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.048 (-0.077)±0.013 (+0.036..+0.061)
Double/Take:+0.126±0.014 (+0.111..+0.140)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.874)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80848619
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 35 minutes 12 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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