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DQ 3: The backgame will protect me *RO*

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Sunday, 10 August 2025, at 8:33 p.m.

In Response To: DQ 3: The backgame will protect me *RO* (leobueno)

However, for donkeys it is unintuitive to double as an underdog. Thus, will appreciate additional insights into why it makes sense to double here.

If there are no gammons in play, the leader's TP is 20%. As an example, in a race, you would double a little later than you would for money. When gammons are in play, there are three reasons to double aggressively at -4/-2:

  • You jack up your gammon price from 46% to 100%.
  • You drop your opponent's gammon price from 86% to 0%.
  • You zero out your opponent's cube value... the trailer's 2-cube TP at -4/-2 is 18.6%, so that cube value is slightly less than usual, but not by a ton.

In your position, your opponents win a lot of gammons, you win a handful, so doubling does a lot to those gammons (both in a direction that's great for you).

At this score, it's worse than usual to lose your market, so you need to cube early.

JLee

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