I called this roll and other rolls that meet the criteria the most annoying rolls because over the board I end up taking a fair amount of time trying to weed down the candidate plays and figure out what's correct. A play like this could potentially swing a lot of equity not from simply being right or wrong, but late in a game where the cube is already jacked up. What's annoying about it? I spend a ton of time on it, come to no hard conclusion, make a play and later find out the plays are all close and all I did was spin my wheels and waste my time for nothing.
I think OtB switching plays are some of the hardest plays to know when to make. Sure, sometimes it's obvious as the switch screams out at you but when it's not so clear there aren't a lot of guidelines you can fall back on. Here the opponent has another blot floating around which is a heavy argument for a switching play when we have a five point board. However that gives up our five prime whereas with the other play we keep the five prime and as long as the opponent doesn't roll an immediate six we're good to go. Luckily here the plays are close but it isn't always the case and I know some of my biggest errors and greatest successes OtB has been switching, or not, when I was or wasn't supposed to.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 87 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 131
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aBCBBB-----------beBbadB-:2:-1:1:55:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 55 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/15 20/5 | eq: +0.192 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.50% (G:14.30% B:0.50%)
37.50% (G:6.39% B:0.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.189...+0.196) - [100.0%]
Duration: 53.5 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 20/15(2) 6/1*(2) | eq: +0.181 (-0.011) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.81% (G:17.40% B:0.35%)
39.19% (G:6.06% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.178...+0.184) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44.8 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 20/10 6/1*(2) | eq: +0.170 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.38% (G:17.16% B:0.34%)
39.62% (G:6.08% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.166...+0.174) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46.5 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 20/10(2) | eq: +0.165 (-0.027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.53% (G:13.68% B:0.51%)
38.47% (G:6.48% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.161...+0.168) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55.7 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|