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Position of the Day 05-27-25 - another does it matter? - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 13 August 2025, at 8:13 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 05-27-25 - another does it matter? (Stick)

Yup, it matters.

While normally it's natural to stick checkers on empty points in similar situations if we compare the plays we quickly see the difference is exactly what John said, after slotting the ace next turn [55 54] will be bad whereas after stacking on the deuce point leaves no such rolls. That's really all there is to it. Why would we think slotting the ace makes up for that 8+% of the time when we leave a shot immediately? I suspect the best play is also a shade better long term for the bear in/bear off but that's harder to prove.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 84
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BcCBCBB-A-b-a----babbb--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout110/5 6/2eq: +0.753
Player:
Opponent:		84.16% (G:12.90% B:0.11%)
15.84% (G:0.99% B:0.03%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.750...+0.757) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20.2 seconds
2.Rollout110/1eq: +0.719 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		82.80% (G:12.58% B:0.11%)
17.20% (G:1.10% B:0.03%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.715...+0.723) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19.1 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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