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Position of the Day 05-31-25 - An easy one - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 19 August 2025, at 4:42 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 05-31-25 - An easy one (Stick)

Like Thomas said, the easiest way to approach a lot of these early game blitz cubes is to know early game blitz positions. If you knew that 65R-55A-F-C was a small no double then you should be able to extrapolate that a small improvement for your opponent like 24/23 should make it a borderline cube meaning it's still a monstrous take. Top it off by bringing another non diversified man in the zone it's obviously a big change but won't be enough to push it into pass territory.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 157
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 141
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-aa---E-C---dF---b-c--b-bA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.97% (G:32.63% B:0.29%) 66.13% (G:34.59% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.03% (G:6.22% B:0.30%) 33.87% (G:6.46% B:0.31%)
Cubeless Equities +0.583 +1.208
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.799 (-0.128)±0.013 (+0.786..+0.813)
Double/Take:+0.927±0.018 (+0.909..+0.945)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.073)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 55.2 seconds

65R-55A-F-C
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 157
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-b----E-C---eF---a-c--b-bA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.70% (G:28.49% B:0.31%) 61.16% (G:29.00% B:0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.30% (G:7.83% B:0.40%) 38.84% (G:7.63% B:0.41%)
Cubeless Equities +0.420 +0.873
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.592±0.014 (+0.578..+0.606)
Double/Take:+0.561 (-0.031)±0.020 (+0.541..+0.582)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.408)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.2%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 04 seconds

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