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Position of the Day 06-04-25 - Rollout
Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 22 August 2025, at 8:22 p.m.
In Response To: Position of the Day 06-04-25 (Stick)
Below I've included 4 reference positions that I know and using some muddled up extrapolation should allow us to make a more informed decision OtB. Here we can't really mess it up too much.
       
 
        
 | | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 45 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 58
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=-CDC--------a------bbbbccA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 77.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 77.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 22.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 22.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.553 | +1.105 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.942 (-0.022) | ±0.002 (+0.940..+0.944) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.964 | ±0.002 (+0.962..+0.967) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.036) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
| Rollout details |
15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 5.4 seconds |
Reference Position
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 45 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 57
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=-CDC---------------cccbbbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 85.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 85.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 14.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 14.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.701 | +1.405 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.996 (-0.004) | ±0.000 (+0.995..+0.996) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.321 (+0.321) | ±0.003 (+1.317..+1.324) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass |
| Rollout details |
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 0.7 second |
Reference Position #2
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 45 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 54
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=-CDC---------------bcccbbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 81.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 81.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 18.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 18.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.625 | +1.257 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.900 (-0.100) | ±0.001 (+0.899..+0.901) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.144 (+0.144) | ±0.004 (+1.140..+1.147) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass |
| Rollout details |
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 0.8 second |
Reference Position #3
 
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 42 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 57
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=-CDB---------------cccbbbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 78.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 78.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 21.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 21.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.569 | +1.142 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.971 (-0.029) | ±0.001 (+0.969..+0.972) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.015 (+0.015) | ±0.002 (+1.013..+1.017) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass |
| Rollout details |
15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 3.2 seconds |
Reference Position #4
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 42 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 54
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=-CDB---------------bcccbbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 74.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 74.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 25.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 25.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.487 | +0.978 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.853 | ±0.001 (+0.852..+0.854) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.830 (-0.023) | ±0.002 (+0.828..+0.833) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.147) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.7% |
| Rollout details |
15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 2.6 seconds |
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