It's always tough to decide when to send more checkers to the roof when facing a backgame. Here, I thought white's 60 pips of timing was not enough so I was reluctant to send more checkers back and improve her timing. Like John, I quietly made the ten point.
I considered hitting just one as a "compromise", but thought that's like "splitting the baby" - worse than either choice. XG seems to confirm this.
With white owning her ace point, her ability to contain a hit checker is diminished, so that points toward hitting two and playing for gammon vs safe plays. At 5a5a a doubled gammon is pretty valuable. Not whacking two is a whopper.
I didn't roll it out at DMP, but the 5a5a results suggest that simply making the ten point is the DMP play.
In the variant posted by Petter, white's homeboard checkers are moved back, both giving more timing and more ability to contain a hit checker which make the back game more viable. Hitting two is a small error with xg favoring the pure play of 8/7 6/3, although 1296 trials were not enough to give a definitive answer. It seems to be hard to go very wrong in the variant.
        
 
            
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 187 | | 5 point match | pip: 127
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b--bbEBCa-CaB-----bba--b-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:5:9 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/12* 12/9* | eq: +0.480 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.89% (G:31.31% B:2.64%)
35.11% (G:5.68% B:0.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.466...+0.495) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/7 6/3 | eq: +0.379 (-0.101) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.72% (G:21.45% B:1.47%)
34.28% (G:6.06% B:0.15%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.368...+0.389) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/10 11/10 | eq: +0.377 (-0.103) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.79% (G:21.85% B:1.23%)
34.21% (G:6.44% B:0.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.366...+0.388) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 18 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/12* 6/3 | eq: +0.350 (-0.130) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.56% (G:24.64% B:1.76%)
36.44% (G:7.64% B:0.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.338...+0.363) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 57 seconds |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 13/9* | eq: +0.326 (-0.154) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.51% (G:24.69% B:1.56%)
36.49% (G:6.88% B:0.20%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
////////////////////////////////
//
//variant
//
////////////////////////////////
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 196 | | 5 point match | pip: 127
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b--bbEBCa-CaB----abbb----:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:5:9 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/7 6/3 | eq: +0.021 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.68% (G:19.60% B:1.71%)
45.32% (G:8.91% B:0.38%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.007...+0.034) - [87.7%]
Duration: 7 minutes 07 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/12* 12/9* | eq: +0.007 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.54% (G:26.41% B:2.79%)
48.46% (G:9.21% B:0.70%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.010...+0.025) - [11.9%]
Duration: 8 minutes 09 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/10 11/10 | eq: -0.003 (-0.023) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.22% (G:19.13% B:1.43%)
45.78% (G:9.98% B:0.89%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.016...+0.010) - [0.4%]
Duration: 7 minutes 21 seconds |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 6/2 | eq: -0.006 (-0.027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.19% (G:19.69% B:1.31%)
45.81% (G:9.20% B:0.37%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 11/7 | eq: -0.033 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.43% (G:19.45% B:1.28%)
46.57% (G:9.38% B:0.36%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2