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Position of the Day 06-09-25 - Another 'last roll' recube - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 28 August 2025, at 9:15 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 06-09-25 - Another 'last roll' recube (Stick)

So the obvious thing to point out is the number of men already off is going to greatly effect the cube action. What is probably less evident can be seen in the variant below. Having an already closed board not only skims a few percent off our gammon losses when we miss but it's also a decent uptick in wins when we do hit as now the opponent can't come in and safety the second checker.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 25
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-CbDAaA-----------bbbbbb--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 67.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.47% (G:16.61% B:0.53%) 32.13% (G:16.79% B:0.54%)
Cubeless Equities +0.179 +0.368
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.381±0.004 (+0.377..+0.384)
Redouble/Take:+0.291 (-0.090)±0.008 (+0.283..+0.299)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.619)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6.7 seconds

Variant
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 25
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 108
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-CbDAaA------------bbbbbb-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 71.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.12% (G:13.84% B:0.40%) 28.66% (G:13.74% B:0.39%)
Cubeless Equities +0.275 +0.571
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.408 (-0.113)±0.001 (+0.407..+0.409)
Redouble/Take:+0.521±0.006 (+0.515..+0.528)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.479)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2.0 seconds

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