This came up at 5a5a and I thought the extra gammons from hitting would make it worth the risk. But, that cuts both ways and the extra gammon losses after hitting make hitting a whopper, both AtS and for unlimited.
At DMP, it's only a small (.017) error to hit.
        
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 131 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 117
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---BcADBBB-Aa---ab-bb-bAb-:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:9 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/18 11/5 | eq: +0.572 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.97% (G:8.90% B:0.25%)
33.03% (G:4.97% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.561...+0.582) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 48 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/12* | eq: +0.431 (-0.140) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.57% (G:10.48% B:0.32%)
33.43% (G:12.66% B:0.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.421...+0.441) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 11/5 6/1 | eq: +0.408 (-0.163) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.64% (G:9.58% B:0.30%)
37.36% (G:5.62% B:0.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.398...+0.418) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 55 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
DMP
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 131 | | 1 point match | pip: 117
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---BcADBBB-Aa---ab-bb-bAb-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:1:9 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/18 11/5 | eq: +0.338 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.91% (G:9.99% B:0.28%)
33.09% (G:4.37% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.334...+0.342) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 54 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/12* | eq: +0.321 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.07% (G:15.13% B:0.64%)
33.93% (G:12.65% B:0.54%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.317...+0.326) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2