[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Position of the Day 06-10-25 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 29 August 2025, at 10:40 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 06-10-25 (Stick)

While getting the bottom line answer is the main goal for any problem, getting it right for the right reasons is the real apex predator. Everyone who replied got it correct and we can't know all the reasons that encompassed their decision because few include all that information. What wasn't mentioned though was the race. In a position like this (and some holding games for eg) our equity can come from hitting a shot or from racing. In the original problem the race is pretty far gone but if we scootch up just 5 pips we've crept back into take territory. See variant #1 below.

Also I'm sure of some interest to people is variant #2 where we've moved the checker from the 22pt to the 23pt which should create more contact. This still only has one roll that is forced to immediately leave a blot.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 117
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 94
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---BBBBBA--A-B---dfc--A-b-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.66% (G:4.73% B:0.01%) 78.99% (G:4.64% B:0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.34% (G:1.77% B:0.03%) 21.01% (G:1.78% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.583 +1.216
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.937 (-0.063)±0.006 (+0.932..+0.943)
Double/Take:+1.121 (+0.121)±0.009 (+1.111..+1.130)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 31.0 seconds

Variant #1
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 112
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 94
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---BBBBBB--A-A---dfc--A-b-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.78% (G:3.03% B:0.02%) 76.48% (G:3.00% B:0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.22% (G:1.71% B:0.03%) 23.52% (G:1.70% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.529 +1.085
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.885 (-0.097)±0.005 (+0.880..+0.890)
Double/Take:+0.981±0.007 (+0.975..+0.988)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.019)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds

Variant #2
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 118
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 94
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---BBBBBA--A-B---dfc---Ab-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.71% (G:4.52% B:0.03%) 77.24% (G:4.32% B:0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.29% (G:2.15% B:0.04%) 22.76% (G:2.27% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities +0.558 +1.130
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.905 (-0.095)±0.004 (+0.902..+0.909)
Double/Take:+1.040 (+0.040)±0.005 (+1.035..+1.045)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 07 seconds

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.