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Position of the Day 06-13-25 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 1 September 2025, at 5:06 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 06-13-25 (Stick)

It seems natural to try to get off the 18pt anchor while the opponent's home board is double blotted and we have a decent number to do it. Two things of note though when facing this decision. First, as John said, the race is close. Yes, we are ahead but not by an overwhelming amount. (11 pips and not on roll in a long race)

Second, and something I think people forget about when seeing the opponent with two inner board blots, if we pay now how many of the opp's hitting numbers also cover? Let's count, [62 52 32 22] all cover one of the blots, some being better than others leaving no shots or covering a better blot. That's 7/11 hitters being pretty strong. Something to consider.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 138 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----CDbC---dC---cBbaba---:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 54

1.	Rollout1	13/4	eq: +0.101
	Player: Opponent: 53.31% (G:7.35% B:0.22%) 46.69% (G:6.45% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.095...+0.106) - [99.9%] Duration: 3 minutes 57 seconds
2.	Rollout1	18/14 18/13	eq: +0.088 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 53.56% (G:4.43% B:0.17%) 46.44% (G:5.82% B:0.13%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.083...+0.094) - [0.1%] Duration: 4 minutes 52 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 06-13-25
  Stick -- Sunday, 31 August 2025, at 1:59 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 06-13-25
    Jason Lee -- Sunday, 31 August 2025, at 2:19 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 06-13-25
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 31 August 2025, at 4:39 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 06-13-25
    ah_clem -- Sunday, 31 August 2025, at 3:19 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 06-13-25
    Bob Koca -- Sunday, 31 August 2025, at 6:30 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 06-13-25 - Rollout
    Stick -- Monday, 1 September 2025, at 5:06 p.m.