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Position of the Day 06-16-25 - Boxcars - Rollout, at it again

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 4 September 2025, at 9:42 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 06-16-25 - Boxcars (Stick)

Below you will find the rollout of the original position followed by the cube action before the roll followed by a dmp rollout.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 154
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BE-BaB-dB---d-e--A-A-:0:0:1:66:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 66

1.Rollout110/4(2) 8/2(2)eq: +0.885
Player:
Opponent:		68.14% (G:36.66% B:0.73%)
31.86% (G:6.07% B:0.26%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.879...+0.891) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16.7 seconds
2.Rollout113/1*(2) eq: +0.868 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		68.01% (G:36.87% B:0.52%)
31.99% (G:5.53% B:0.25%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.861...+0.875) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21.3 seconds
3.Rollout222/4 10/4eq: +0.852 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		68.10% (G:30.17% B:0.75%)
31.90% (G:5.95% B:0.27%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.841...+0.864) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16.9 seconds
4.Rollout222/10 13/7(2)eq: +0.852 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		69.05% (G:25.03% B:0.73%)
30.95% (G:4.86% B:0.18%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.843...+0.861) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15.3 seconds
5.Rollout222/10 8/2(2)eq: +0.846 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		67.42% (G:27.34% B:0.62%)
32.58% (G:6.21% B:0.25%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.834...+0.858) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19.7 seconds
6.Rollout213/7(2) 10/4(2)eq: +0.826 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:		68.02% (G:32.92% B:1.01%)
31.98% (G:6.26% B:0.23%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.816...+0.836) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13.2 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Cube Action before the roll
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 154
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BE-BaB-dB---d-e--A-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.85% (G:25.47% B:1.04%) 63.04% (G:26.17% B:1.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.15% (G:8.28% B:0.43%) 36.96% (G:8.42% B:0.44%)
Cubeless Equities +0.435 +0.889
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.611±0.007 (+0.604..+0.618)
Double/Take:+0.598 (-0.013)±0.010 (+0.589..+0.608)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.389)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.1%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:98.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 26 seconds

DMP
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 154
1 point match
pip: 148
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BE-BaB-dB---d-e--A-A-:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 66

1.Rollout122/10 13/7(2)eq: +0.364
Player:
Opponent:		68.22% (G:29.76% B:3.76%)
31.78% (G:5.45% B:0.52%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.361...+0.368) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 51 seconds
2.Rollout110/4(2) 8/2(2)eq: +0.357 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		67.86% (G:40.91% B:2.68%)
32.14% (G:5.68% B:0.51%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.354...+0.360) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 19 seconds
3.Rollout222/4 10/4eq: +0.354 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		67.68% (G:32.54% B:2.63%)
32.32% (G:6.39% B:0.55%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.350...+0.357) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds
4.Rollout313/1*(2) eq: +0.350 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		67.52% (G:41.46% B:1.00%)
32.48% (G:5.15% B:0.68%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.345...+0.356) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29.1 seconds
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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