With a nice race lead and two homeboard blots to shoot at, getting off the 18 seemed like the right approach. There are two ways to do this and I picked the poorer of the two: 18/13. Both leave a double direct, but clearing the 18, well, clears the 18. Interestingly, XGR++ favored bringing two down, but the rollout shows clearing now is the bot choice.
XG has no love for covering the ace, but in the variant I've tidied up white's board and that makes XGR++ favor covering the ace.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 138 | | 5 point match | pip: 125
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-A-bB-DBB---bB---dBe-a-a--:0:0:1:32:1:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/16 18/15 | eq: +0.605 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.22% (G:11.65% B:0.94%)
35.78% (G:9.01% B:0.32%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.591...+0.619) - [71.6%]
Duration: 1 minute 07 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/13 | eq: +0.598 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.72% (G:9.86% B:0.77%)
36.28% (G:7.20% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.584...+0.612) - [21.4%]
Duration: 1 minute 09 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/11 13/10 | eq: +0.593 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.28% (G:10.20% B:0.46%)
36.72% (G:6.22% B:0.21%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.580...+0.606) - [6.9%]
Duration: 58.7 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/8 | eq: +0.561 (-0.043) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.75% (G:9.63% B:0.42%)
37.25% (G:6.32% B:0.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.548...+0.575) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56.4 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 6/1 | eq: +0.550 (-0.055) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.37% (G:9.34% B:0.57%)
37.63% (G:6.70% B:0.18%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.537...+0.563) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58.5 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
VARIANT
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 138 | | 5 point match | pip: 125
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-A-bB-DBB---bB---dBd-c----:0:0:1:32:1:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 6/1 | eq: +0.455 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.27% (G:8.67% B:0.18%)
38.73% (G:6.54% B:0.16%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 13/11 13/10 | eq: +0.433 (-0.021) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.27% (G:9.55% B:0.18%)
39.73% (G:6.49% B:0.18%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 13/8 | eq: +0.425 (-0.029) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.18% (G:9.64% B:0.25%)
39.82% (G:6.94% B:0.23%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 18/13 | eq: +0.334 (-0.121) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.91% (G:8.63% B:0.29%)
41.09% (G:9.44% B:0.25%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2